Developing air quality forecasts

Bias-adjustment Techniques for Improving Ozone Air Quality Forecasts

In this study, we apply two bias-adjustment techniques to help improve forecast accuracy by post-processing air quality forecast (AQF) model outputs. These techniques are applied to modeled ozone (O 3) forecasts over the continental United States during the summer of 2005. The first technique, referred to as the Hybrid Forecast (HF), combines the most recent observed ozone with model-predicted ...

Verification of clear-air turbulence forecasts

Managing air quality in a rapidly developing nation - - China

As the world gets ready to begin the second decade of the Twenty-first Century, global climate change has been recognized as a real threat to civilization as we know it. The rapid and successful economic growth of developing nations, particularly China and India, is contributing to climate change. The route to initial economic success in China followed that of the developed nations through the ...

Quality Control for Probability Forecasts

The meaning of probabilistic weather forecasts is discussed from the point of view of a subjectivist concept of probability. The prior degree of belief of probabilities of the weather in question, for a given forecast statement, is expressed analytically as a beta function. Bzyes’ theorem is used to modify this degree of belief in the light of experience, producing a posterior degree of belief ...

Exploring the applicability of future air quality predictions based on synoptic system forecasts.

For a given emissions inventory, the general levels of air pollutants and the spatial distribution of their concentrations are determined by the physiochemical state of the atmosphere. Apart from the trivial seasonal and daily cycles, most of the variability is associated with the atmospheric synoptic scale. A simple methodology for assessing future levels of air pollutants' concentrations base...